Thursday night brought a bump back to earth for the Pittsburgh Steelers, humbled in defeat by the Cleveland Browns in a game that could have gone either way (esp given the conditions ed ). However Pittsburgh can feel hard done by as they were statistically superior in so many important categories, as I recently delved into on my article over at the Huddle UK - Steelers take two steps forward, one step back.
Pittsburgh have almost certainly made it to the postseason, but with the playoff picture coming increasingly into focus week by week, it’s only natural to start looking ahead to January and wondering how the team will fare. The most concerning aspect for Steelers fans will no doubt be the offence, although since Russell Wilson came into the lineup they have certainly looked better on the eye.
We’re going to do a deep dive to some of the underlying stats to see if they say similar - or if worries lie ahead for the black and gold.
Recipe for success
Since Wilson was inserted into the lineup the team has a 4-1 record, with the only loss coming against Cleveland on Thursday night - the two most impressive victories of the season so far (Baltimore and Washington) came during this 5 game spell, and many have started to buy into Pittsburgh as legitimate contenders in the AFC.
The offence has averaged 25.6 points per game in this period - which would be good enough for 9th in the league if spread out over a whole season, so on the surface things appear to be going well. One of the obvious differences since Wilson came into the lineup has been a concerted effort to push the ball downfield, which certainly suits his playstyle given his fantastic “moon Ball.” He has averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt which is an excellent number and for context is 5th best in the league. This has then had the additional effect of meaning defences can no longer stay as close to the line of scrimmage allowing the running game to have more success.
With Wilson under centre the Steelers running backs have averaged 123 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per rush, whereas with Fields they averaged 94 yards per game and 3.9 yards per rush. This helps play into the Steelers version of complimentary football, a key part of this is taking care of the football - and to Wilson’s credit he has a 7/2 touchdown to interception ratio with only 1.3% of his pass attempts being intercepted, which is 5th best in the league.
15.1% of Wilson’s throws would be considered bad throws per profootballreference.com which is middle of the pack and given the propensity for Wilson to force the ball down the field this is an acceptable trade off. Pushing the ball down the field while simultaneously taking care of the ball is generally a winning formula - so it would be fair to assume that he is doing this with accurate throws? A closer look gives cause for concern.
Scattershot
Worryingly only 59.7% of his throws are considered to be on target which means (excluding throw aways/spikes) 59.7% of his throws would hit the intended receiver regardless of coverage or drops. This is a good indicator of accuracy and is 35th of 37 quarterbacks - which should ring alarm bells. This lack of accuracy is also starting to bleed over into other areas such as passing success rate (this is where a successful pass is considered to be one that gains 40% of the yards needed on first down, 60% on second down and 100% on third or fourth down) Wilson’s success rate is 9th worst out of 36 QB’s at 42.2%, but given the fact that as we have looked at Wilson’s ability to successfully push the ball down the field, it becomes clear that the reason for this percentage being so low is an accuracy issue rather than a target depth issue.
Redzone
Most concerning is Wilson’s red zone accuracy where he ranks 40th of 40 in red zone accuracy - only completing 9/26 passes which is absolutely abysmal whatever way you look at it. This makes the red zone offence incredibly one dimensional - which isn’t typically synonymous with playoff success.
City of champions once more?
These underlying stats paint a bleak picture for the black and gold but its not all doom and gloom. The defence and rushing attack give Pittsburgh a good foundation to build on, and will also give a bigger margin for error in games. Victories against Baltimore and Washington have shown that Pittsburgh can defeat playoff calibre teams.
Unfortunately I believe the lack of accuracy - particularly in the red zone, will prove to be a fatal flaw for Wilson and by extension the Steelers if not corrected. As Russ likes to say: let’s ride! But Steeler Nation will be hoping this is just a pit stop on the way to New Orleans on February the 9th.
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