The Steelers' offense in 2023 was historically poor, leading to the mid-season firing of their coordinator for the first time since 1941. However, with a new offensive coordinator, an overhauled quarterback room, a revamped offensive line, and two running backs potentially in their prime, there is plenty of reason for optimism heading into 2024. But for the stat nerds out there, what should we be looking for in 2024?
To identify the most crucial offensive stats, I referred to an article by Perry Schwartz, where he employed a random forest regression model to determine which stats are most predictive of points scored (original article). Since points mean prizes, this approach seems reasonable. The three most important stats were:
So how did the Steelers’ rank in these in 2023 and what should we look out for in 2024? Time to fire up the play-by-play statistics database in nflreadR.
Rushing yards were actually the Steelers’ best offensive stat in 2023, ranking 12th according to my code, although official NFL statistics have them 13th, just ahead of the Browns. As Dave would say, “F**k the Browns.” Examining data from 2020 to 2023 reveals an improving trend in the Steelers' run game, rising from dead last in 2020. I have also marked other AFC North teams and the Niners and Chiefs for context, given their success over this period.
What stands out is that the Chiefs, with three Super Bowl appearances and two wins over this period, do not have a strong run game. Similarly, the Bengals made the Super Bowl in 2022 despite one of the league's worst run games. This raises the question: “does a good run game matter?” While it can secure a high win total and regular season success (see the Ravens), can it lead to a championship (see the Niners also)? With the Steelers heavily investing in their run game, is this a concern?
All this said, we should be targeting (at least) a top-five run game in 2024. For those keeping score, the benchmark is about 140 rushing yards per week.
The next most important stat is Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (NYA/A). I have to admit, I don’t like composite stats like this (also passer rating). For this exercise, I want box score stats you can track. NYA/A, originally created by Pro Football Reference (I think) measures a quarterback's passing yards per attempt adjusted for sacks, touchdowns, and interceptions.
For what it’s worth, we were terrible in this stat in 2023, with Trubisky ranking last (he didn't even qualify, I had to add him manually). Pickett wasn't much better, and Fields wasn't that great either. Russell Wilson does crack the top 15, but for those who want to track this next season, a good benchmark would be 7.5 NYA/A. I think our lead QB getting more than Six passing TDs would be a good start.
But what about first downs, 1st on Perry’s list of key stats? The Steelers were awful in this stat in 2023, only better than the Giants, Jets, and Patriots. We need to see a vast improvement here; otherwise, our punter is going to have a very tired leg by the bye week. Not much to say here— we need to move the sticks if we want to see success driven by the offense and not T.J. Watt and company. Look for us to break the 20 per game mark this year. Am I asking too much?
To sum up, what should we take away from this? The way I see it is the Steelers’ run game has been improving since the debacle of 2020, and it is reasonable with the coaching and personnel changes to see us break the top 5 this year. However, can this take us to the promised land of ring number 7? I have my doubts; we need a significantly improved passing game. Can Russ/Fields provide this? Fields has the ceiling for sure, but maybe Russ can get us to that mid table zone (where he ranked last year). Perhaps with a strong run game that is enough?
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