Tale of the tape
KEY STAT | STEELERS | CHIEFS |
PPG OFFENCE | 23.5 (12/32) | 23.7 (11/32) |
PPG DEFENCE | 19.9 (6/32) | 18.5 (3/32) |
PASSING YPG OFFENCE | 198.9 (25/32) | 225.9 (12/32) |
PASSING YPG DEFENCE | 220.7 (20/32) | 215.8 (17/32) |
RUSHING YPG OFFENCE | 126 (11/32) | 112.9 (15/32) |
RUSHING YPG DEFENCE | 102.7 (7/32) | 91.4 (3/32) |
Three keys to victory
Finish the rush
Mahomes has been hurried the 5th highest amount of times in the league this year, and no quarterback has been hit more than him - although he’s only been sacked at the 11th highest rate this year. This is a credit to Mahomes who is hanging in the pocket to give his receivers the maximum amount of time possible to get open before releasing or throwing away. That’s why I believe finishing the rush is so important, Mahomes will be pressured multiple times throughout the game but without converting these pressures into sacks it might not mean much; as shown by their win/loss record.
This could be a great opportunity for Nick Herbig to thrive, he’s the only player in the league to have featured in the fastest 20 sacks list more than once - and Jawaan Taylor (Chief's OT) in particular seems to struggle with speed rushers. Taylor has been questionable and DJ Humphries has been ruled out so with at least one backup Tackle playing - there could be a bigger chance of pressuring Mahomes.
Get Russ into a rhythm / hunt the right matchups
Far too often this year the offence has started slowly and not really kicked it into gear until the second half, injuries in recent weeks haven’t helped, as well as questionable play-calling. It is imperative to get Russ into a rhythm early to chain drives together and avoid playing from behind again.
While the Chiefs passing defence is middle of the pack statistically, upon closer inspection there are a few matchups to exploit. Thanks to their fantastic cornerbacks they give up the 5th least amount of pass yards to wide receivers, but as I pointed out in my most recent Gridiron Gamble article, they give up the most yards and 3rd most receptions to tight ends in the league. This is mainly because Nick Bolton, the main coverage linebacker for the Chiefs, has given up a 83.3 % completion percentage, which is 7th worst in the league. Safety Justin Reid, who is also responsible for tight ends, has given up 80% of his passes - something to exploit there.. The starting nickelback for the chiefs has been ruled out, which means Christian Roland-Wallace may see his number called, but in a very limited sample size he has given up 9 completions on 12 targets - something for Russ to hunt.
Protect Russ
Chris Jones is questionable for this game - huge for the Steelers as he is one of the truly elite defensive linemen in the league and would be a massive miss for the Chiefs. This doesn’t mean that the O-Line are in for an easy game though, as the Chiefs rank 4th in the league in pressure rate against opposing QB’s. A large part of these pressures come from the second highest blitz rate in the league. So while Jones would be a big loss, they may look to blitz even more and replace him with quantity rather than quality. Russ not hanging onto the ball is absolutely key to helping his offensive line, as he has a propensity to hang onto the ball for too long and invite unnecessary pressure because of this.
Coming back to my second point about getting Russ into rhythm - when he releases his passes in under 2.5 seconds his completion percentage jumps 10 points and obviously is tougher to pressure or sack. If the offensive line can’t hold up man for man then this could be a great way of Arthur Smith helping his QB and O-Line out.
Here WeGo
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