Season record 8-7
Looking back at last week - With last week being week 18 it’s always a tough weekend betting wise, I tried to take props that were still meaningful in the grand scheme of things. Tony Pollard despite getting a good volume of carries was struggling to make much headway against the Texans. Mike Evans and the Bucs were surprisingly out of sync until late in the game. A two point conversion away in the seahawks game and finally I just totally got the Vikings lion read wrong . I think if that game happens again it’s a much closer game as the Vikings had opportunities but it certainly didn’t go the way I thought. The only prop picked correctly was one that weighed heavy on the heart picking against the Steelers.
Prop 1- Calvin Austin over 23.5 receiving yards
Baltimore allow the fourth most receiving yards to wide receivers and the second most passing yards overall. With the game script likely calling for Pittsburgh to be passing to stay in the game and with Austin gaining 65 yards last time out against the Ravens.I think this is an easy number for him to beat with him clearing this in 5/6 of the most recent losses for Pittsburgh.
Prop 2- Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles -5
With Green Bay floundering in recent weeks, I think this is a bad match up travelling to Philadelphia. The Eagles have the best defence coming into the playoffs IMO and I can see them blanketing the Packers passing attack and with Christian Watson being out that is one less option that Jordan Love has to go to. Close game for the first half and then the Eagles start to ease away in the second.
Prop 3- Josh Allen over 43.5 rushing yards
Denvers defence pressure qb’s at the second highest rate in the league and blitz on almost 30% of their plays, this will naturally lead to more scrambles against them particularly if the first man misses which is a specialty of Allen. In his playoff history Allen has averaged over 56 yards rushing, I also think there could be more designed qb runs than usual from Buffalo as the Denver defence is stout against running back rushes.
Prop 4- Isiah Likely over 28.5 receiving yards
With Zay Flowers out, those targets are going to have to go to other places and I really like the look of Likely’s line and Mark Andrews line at 46.5. I think Andrews is likely to receive more coverage in his direction than Likely will and Likely has cleared this line in both games against Pittsburgh this year. With his threat after the catch there is always a chance he could make this in only one reception as well.
Prop 5- Robert woods over 8.5 receiving yards
I LOVE LOVE LOVE this line, he has cleared this line in his last four games and with Diggs and Dell out there is no reason to think he won’t receive some targets to be able to complete this. With a line as low as this only one reception is necessary so this is feasible at any point in the game. Chargers are average at yards given up to receivers so again no reason to think this can’t be done.
Steelers bet builder – 4/1
Pittsburgh Steelers +14.5
With the game line set at +10.5 it’s clear why the Steelers are such big underdogs but this has all the makings of a backdoor cover since Pittsburgh if behind will be going all in throughout the game. This is a lot of points to handicap them with and while sadly I can see the Steelers losing I think they can keep it within 14 points
Isiah Likely over 2.5 receptions
As I covered in the prop bet I think that Likely will receive more targets his way with Flowers out and three receptions isn’t a high number to clear
Mark Andrews over 3.5 receptions
Same as above
Over 1.5 field goals
At points this game will be close probably to begin the first half and there will be field goals as ever in an AFC North matchup, is you take over 2.5 field goals the bet builder goes upto 5/1
Steelers under 30.5 points
Regardless of situation I just don’t trust this offence to get over 30 points against just about anyone right now never mind in a playoff game.
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