Seasons record 7-3
Week 18 is a particularly hard week to bet on thanks to so many players resting/quantity of meaningless games, but here are some things I think have value.
Prop 1 Tony Pollard over rushing yards
Pollard needs 83 rushing yards to earn an extra 500k in incentives and given that Houston could easily be resting players with them locked into the four seed and then given the fact in the last game Pollard ran for 121 yards this seems like a good opportunity.
Prop 2 Mike Evans over 96.5 receiving yards
Coming into this week Evans could earn up to 3 million dollars extra if he has 5 receptions and 85 yards, the line for his receptions isn’t out yet so I’ve gone with yards but whichever one you feel more comfortable with makes sense here.
Prop 3 Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati need to win this game to have any chance of making the playoffs, meanwhile Pittsburgh have the playoffs guaranteed for them - this game is merely about seeding for them. While it may be sacrilege to say this game does mean more for the Bengals and I think it will show in the play throughout the game. I also think Burrow will carve up the Steelers pass defence which seems to be getting worse week on week. Offensively the Steelers may have success as the Bengals defence has been porous for most of the year, but I just don’t have enough faith in Pittsburgh to be able to keep up with Burrow & co.
Prop 4 Minnesota Vikings +3 at Detroit Lions
Minnesota seem to be hitting their stride at the perfect point in the season and appear more and more the real deal by the week. Sam Darnold in any other year would be getting MVP consideration after the season he’s had, and Brian Flores’s defence is unbelievable right now. I think a fully healthy Detroit is the better team - but they currently have 18!!! players on the IL and with most of them being defensive players it's starting to take its tolll on the team now. They have given up an average of 31 points over the last four games and I don’t think the offence will be able to score enough to keep up with Minnesota.
Prop 5 Seattle Seahawks -6.5 at Los Angeles Rams.
Geno Smith has the chance to earn four million dollars in incentives if Seattle win & he throws for at least 186 passing yards. With the Rams resting several key players and not being a team that is flush with depth - I think there’s a good opportunity for Seattle to run amok here as Mike McDonald will undoubtedly want to finish his first season as a head coach off on a high.
Steelers bet builder – 5/1
Chase Brown under 66.5 yards
With Brown being listed as questionable coming into the game and Herbert being a viable option at back up - I think there is a high chance Brown's usage is much lower than usual. The best chance for a Bengals victory is through the air and with their season on the line I think they will lean heavily on Burrow because of this.
Joe Burrow 250+ passing yards
His line is 286.5 yards, so this is an alternate total and I think there’s a combination of factors which makes this part highly likely. Burrow has arguably been the best QB in the league this year - especially when it purely comes to passing, Burrow had huge success last time out against the Steelers and since then the passing defence is floundering.
Steelers under 27.5 points
While this may be unpopular - I don’t believe in this offence, and for as bad as the defence has been for the Bengals, this is a win or go home game and I think they will step up enough against a poor predictable offence.
Russell Wilson over 175 passing yards
Again this is an alternate line - his actual line is 226.5, and while I don’t believe this offence will be anywhere near as effective as last year, this isn’t a high total to clear and the Bengals pass defence will be average at best.
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