Week 15 Recap
Last weeks record 3-2 on props, 3 of 4 legs on bet builder came in
What went right – on the prop side of things , the Bengals and Chiefs easily came in as they romped to victory and despite the Saints best efforts - the under 43.5 in their match came home. In terms of the bet builder, Saquon was held to under 100 yards in a game and the alternate match total easily came through. Calvin Austin also delivered a fantastic performance going 5 for 5 for 65 yards blowing past his total of 23.5 yards.
What went wrong - for the props the Giants despite being gifted 17 points couldn’t contain Lamar and the Baltimore offence and this was the prop I was most unsure of - it just seemed so many points in a season where blowouts have been rare. Garrett Wilson went under his total of 63.5 which was desperately unlucky considering he had 41 on the first drive yet only caught one more pass for the rest of the game as Davante Adams went off, Wilson also had his lowest target total in 6 weeks. I thought the battle of Pennsylvania had all the makings of a tight game but unfortunately Jalen Hurts had other ideas and the alternate spread of Steelers +7.5 didn’t come home.
Week 16 Props
Eagles -3 @ Commanders
Philadelphia have been an absolute juggernaut since week 5 - going undefeated in that stretch. They have imo the best defence in the league right now and a very impressive offence which has shown it can go from 0-100 at any point in a game. Washington have really dipped in performances since the Steelers game, and Kingsbury has previous of his offence’s wilting in the second half of the season.
Titans at Colts - points total over 42.5
I love this total, both offences are very much boom or bust, and are prone to throwing pick 6’s and giving the other team easy points. Neither defence has looked particularly special either. This has a sloppy player but eventful game written all over it.
John Connor over 84.5 rushing yards
After 2 games in row where he has had at least 16+ carries and 90 and 110 yards against the league's worst rushing defence in Carolina. For the Cardinals to have any chance of playoffs then a victory is a must and riding Conner is the best way to do this.
Jahmyr Gibbs over 123.5 scrimmage yards
With David Montgomery out until at least the playoffs, Jahmyr Gibbs should feast on the Chicago rushing defence which is ranked 7 th worst in the league. This could easily be over rushing yards or scrimmage yards but given the amount of passes the running backs for Detroit typically catch I feel this is the better play.
Dalton Schultz over 34.5 receiving yards
Kansas have been giving up the most yards to tight ends this year, and Schultz is clearly a talented player who when given the right match up this year has feasted. The Texans offence is on a slump however which makes this risky but considering how good the Chiefs rushing defence is then Houston figure to pass which makes Shultz a good option to beat his prop.
Steelers bet builder – 6/1
Derrick Henry under 81.5 yards
The Steelers have shown themselves capable of keeping even the most talented of backs under a high total as shown previously with Henry and Barkley. Also the clearest path to victory for opposing teams seems to be passing the ball, as long as the game isn’t a blowout I think ravens will stick to passing.
Najee Harris over 12.5 receiving yards
This is a low total for a good receiving back - it’s just that the steelers don’t always use him in this way. Against the ravens previously though, the time of possession battle has been key and some of that is check downs and I think they will look to utilise this. Realistically one pass could see this go over.
Over 2.5 field goals
With a great Steelers defence and underwhelming offence Vs a great Ravens offence and poor passing defence; I think there could be plenty of field goals in this game.
Russell Wilson alternate 200 yards
With the Ravens having a good rushing defence, at some point the Steelers will need to pass for significant periods of this game - which has been the ravens Achilles heel, they have given up the second most yards in the passing game this year. 200 yds is a low total for a player that can be feast or famine like Russ.
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