Each week I construct a bet builder on the Steelers game at 5/1 or more, and give my 5 favourite picks across the league - whether it be picks against the spread, over/unders or player props.
Steelers bet builder 5/1
Saquon Barkley under 99.5 rushing yards
The Steelers have a great rushing defence this year ranked 4th in the league. They have held the other elite running backs they’ve played under 100 yards. Mike Tomlin & Co will be game planning for this and as I alluded to in my article Three keys to victory - Battle of Pennsylvania preview I think there is a formula for limiting Barkley and I trust Pittsburgh to just about keep him under this total.
Calvin Austin over 23.5 receiving yards
CA3 has legitimate game changing speed which can flip the field in an instant and had been playing better up until his concussion against the Bengals. Now that time has passed and against a great defence at blanketing the short and middle of the field, Russ will be needing to look deep. Austin’s best work comes from the slot where he could get matched against CJ Gardner Johnson - one of the eagles’ safeties who has given up the 10th highest yards per reception total in the league.
Steelers adjusted spread +7.5
Pittsburgh are on a roll and I think if they can force Jalen Hurts into a drop back passing game they have a real chance to win. Current spread is 5.5 but adjust up to 7.5 to allow for wiggle room.
Adjusted match total- under 52.5pts
The current total is 43 at time of writing and we only need to adjust it to 52.5 to bring the multiple to 5/1, While the Steelers have been in some surprising shootouts this year this has all the makings of a low scoring match.
Around The League
Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 at Tennessee Titans
The Bengals defence has been absolutely sickeningly bad this year, but the Titans’ offence has also been horrific and with Will Levis at QB the chances of him giving the other team points are high. Throw in the league's top rated offence against a good but not great defence who have been found out against the elite in the league. I think the Bengals giving 5.5 is a steal.
Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 against the Cleveland Browns
Cleveland have not been having a good season and while the Chiefs have flattered to deceive at times I just don’t see how they don’t win this handily and yes I know the Chiefs have been very lucky against some poor teams but this is just a case of me trusting Mahomes and the offence to get things done.
Washington Commanders v New Orleans Saints under total 43.5
Derek Carr is out and Jake Haener is starting for the Saints which isn’t great for Saints fans or for viewers in fact, the defence is league average and with the Saints trying to chase down their division foes they will be game for this matchup. Kliff Kingsbury’s offences typically flounder in the second half of seasons and we are seeing this repeat.
Garrett Wilson over 61.5 Yards
Wilson has 10 targets in 3 of his last 4 games, and he was targeted 8 times in the 4th game. Despite everything else that’s happening for the Jets this year GW is having a pretty good year. Jacksonville has the second worst pass defence in the league and Wilson will figure to have favourable matchups at times thanks to Davante Adams across the field from him.
New York Giants +17 at home to Baltimore Ravens
I have no doubt the Ravens will win this easily but 17 points is A LOT to give up, over the past few years this team has generally played down to its competition as well even when winning which is another reason I have hope for this. The Giants players and coaching staff alike will be playing for jobs either in the organisation or without so there is reason to think they will play hard. I know I will be sweating this one out but I just think it's too many points to give up under the circumstances.
Let us know what you think or suggestions in the comments !!
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